Saturday, 7 July 2012
Trends in Civilian Population, Labor Force, Employed
Demographics suggests the labor force would be growing at a smaller rate, but still growing. Instead, the labor force has stalled for four years. For example: in 2000 it took about 150,000 jobs per month to keep up with birthrate and immigration. In 2007 it took about 125,000 jobs per month (a number I believe Bernanke still uses).
I think it now takes about 75,000. However, so many boomers are desperate for jobs and the participation rate has dropped so low, that should the economy improve and people start looking for work, the number could easily rise back up to 125,000 per month.
For a detailed discussion, please see Question on Jobs: How Many Does It Take to Keep Up With Demographics?
Mike "Mish" Shedlock