Thursday, 27 October 2011

The Forecast File: US Q3 GDP

GDP Growth Rate May Run Out of Steam
The Wall Street Journal | Oct 27
The Commerce Department will release its first estimate of third-quarter U.S. gross-domestic-product growth Thursday. Economists expect GDP in real terms to expand at about a 2.7% seasonally adjusted annualized pace, helped by a rebound in auto production after Japan-related shutdowns this year. This would be an improvement from the economy's average 0.9% growth rate in the first half of the year.

Economy in U.S. Probably Expanded at the Fastest Pace in a Year
Bloomberg | Oct 27
Gross domestic product, the value of all goods and services produced, rose at a 2.5 percent annual pace after advancing 1.3 percent in the previous three months, according to the median forecast of 83 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News. Household purchases, the biggest part of the economy, may have climbed more than twice as fast as in the second quarter.

GDP: good expectations for growth
The Washington Post | Oct 26
Forecasters expect that when the Commerce Department releases its first estimate of the number, gross domestic product will have risen at a 2.5 percent annual rate in the third quarter. That would be the highest growth rate in a year and would trump the 0.7 percent average pace over the first half of this year.

Analysts change tune on GDP, now see solid Q3
Reuters | Oct 26
Economists now estimate gross domestic product grew at an annual pace of 2.5 percent, according to the median of a Reuters poll. That would mark a sharp step up from the 1.3 percent logged in the second quarter and a far cry from what some feared just a few weeks ago.

US economy likely grew a little faster over summer
The Associated Press | Oct 27
The U.S. economy likely grew at a faster pace over the summer after a sluggish first half of the year. Consumers spent more on retail goods. Businesses kept investing in equipment. And U.S. auto production rebounded after supply-chain disruptions caused by the Japan crisis finally started to ease. For those reasons, economists are forecasting annual growth of 2.4 percent for the July-September quarter, according to a survey by FactSet.

GDP October Surprise: Big Jump Expected for 3Q
The Fiscal Times | Oct 26
Economists surveyed by various outlets have, over the last month, raised their forecasts for third-quarter GDP growth to 2.5 percent, up from much less rosy rates below 2 percent. Corporate earnings overall have come in better than expected — not unusual, but still a relief given fears that the stalling economy could grind away at profits. The stock market has responded with gusto.


by: James Picerno

Source: http://www.capitalspectator.com/archives/2011/10/the_forecast_fi.html

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