Thursday, 1 September 2011

Slowing World Trade Q2 2011

The OECD Q2 2011 international trade report came in today showing weak results. The only bright spots were China and Brazil, but Chinese imports were very weak. As these economies slow, we would expect the big exporters to slow as well. The net trade balance (blue bar) isn’t significant, but slowing imports and exports is.
Merchandise trade growth slowed across major economies in the second quarter of 2011. Total imports of G7 and BRICS countries grew by only 1.1% in the second quarter compared to 10.1% in the previous quarter. Total export growth slowed to 1.9%, compared to 7.7% in the previous quarter.

China’s imports grew by 0.7%, compared to 11.1% in the first quarter, the lowest rate since the first quarter of 2009, while exports picked up strongly by 10.0% (compared to 2.9% in the previous quarter), leading to a sharp increase in the trade surplus.

In the United States, import growth slowed to 3.0% (versus 11.1% in the previous quarter) and export growth dropped to 2.6% (versus 5.6% in the previous quarter).

Compared to the first quarter, both import and export growth rates slowed down in all G7 and BRICS countries, except in Brazil, where imports increased strongly by 11.2% (versus 5.7% in the previous quarter) and in China.

by: Jeffrey Harding


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